The current political situation in Belgium has its origin in 1968, when the students split the Catholic University of Leuven into two parts; Leuven became Flemish and a new French campus was founded.
It had a snowball-effect on the Belgian Catholic church and on the main political parties, namely the conservative Catholic party, the liberals and the socialists, which were all divided into Francophone and Flemish parts.
After the June 2010 election the country had a caretaker government for 230 days, but as there are many layers of administration in place, the daily life continued without any problems. Even the bond markets seemed to be largely unconcerned about the political situation of the country. The first and only demonstration to urge politicians to find a solution was organised by students not until the end of January 2011.
At the time this article came out a break-up of Belgium – a founder of the EU as well as the host to its capital – seemed to be possible.
Unlike the impasses which led to blockages after the previous elections, this time a separatist party, the New Flemish Alliance (N-VA), became dominant in Flanders. One explanation for this outcome is that the EU allows peaceful nationalists to act up, and as there is no danger of bloodshed, voters support them.
If Belgium splits apart, in certain countries, such as Spain and Italy, the rich regions might also wish to follow it as a precedent. Scottish nationalists will certainly also push more strongly for their right to independence. National minorities in many ex-communist countries, such as Hungarians in Slovakia, might express their wish for independence, as well.
If Flanders broke away from Belgium, the big question would be whether or not Brussels, officially bilingual but overwhelmingly Francophone, could leave Flanders. As there is no immediate solution to be found for this problem, people remain optimistic that the Flemings and the Walloons will "somehow" continue to live together.
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